On October 19, 2026, the average 30-year jumbo rate in Mortgage News Daily's survey was 7.65%. A year earlier it was 6.20%. If you'd told me that a year ago, I would have guessed the high end of the market would stall, and it hasn't.
Redfin tracks what it calls luxury homes, meaning the top 5% of prices in each metro area. In the three months ending May 31, 2026, the median luxury home sold for about $1.37 million, up 4.7% from a year earlier. Typical homes, the ones in the middle of each market, rose 1.5% over the same stretch. Pending luxury sales were up 5.2%.
Some local numbers are bigger than that. In Redfin's report covering February through April, pending luxury sales in San Francisco were up 48.4% year over year, and luxury prices in Tampa were up 17.1%. A lot of that San Francisco activity lines up with the founders and early employees I talk to who have liquidity again for the first time in a few years.
Why the top of the market behaves differently
Most of my clients either pay cash or put down enough that the rate is a line item, not a dealbreaker. Redfin made the same point in its June release, that affluent buyers are less exposed to the affordability squeeze the rest of the country is feeling. When a buyer at $400,000 sees rates jump a point and a half, they often stop shopping. A founder buying at $3 million usually keeps going and adjusts the structure.
The rate still costs real money, and I'd rather you see it plainly. On a $2.25 million loan, which is a $3 million home with 25% down, the principal and interest payment at 6.20% is about $13,781 a month. At 7.65% it's about $15,964. That's roughly $2,184 more every month, or a little over $26,000 a year, before taxes and insurance.
What I'm telling buyers right now
Rising prices at the top don't mean every seller has the upper hand. Inventory at the luxury level is up only slightly, and well-priced homes move while overpriced ones sit. On a home that's been listed for a while, I'd rather negotiate a credit toward a rate buydown or a longer close than chase a small price cut.
It's also worth thinking about how long you'll hold the loan. Plenty of my clients finance at today's rate with a plan to pay the loan down when a liquidity event lands, or to refinance if rates come back. That's a reasonable plan as long as the payment works today without counting on either of those happening.
And if most of your wealth is in a company or a portfolio, don't assume you'll qualify the same way a salaried buyer does. I wrote more about that in how asset-based loans work.
One honest caveat about these numbers: Redfin's luxury figures run through May, so they lag the rate data by several months. I'll update this when the fall numbers come out.
Sources
This article is general information, not legal, tax or investment advice. All loans are subject to underwriting approval.
Talk it through with me
If you're weighing a move, a purchase or a loan, a private consultation is the easiest place to start.
Book a Private Consultation